Open Championship Tournament Preview
The last major championship is set to kick off with the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. In this article, we will breakdown the course itself, identify the key metrics to success, create a course fit model and use that data to identify some of the best option on Draftkings for this week's tournament.
Open Championship - Royal Birkdale
- Par 70, ~7,400 yards
- Par 3s: 4
- Par 4s: 12
- Par 5s: 2
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
- Water: 0 Holes
- Design: George Lowe, 1897
- Location: Birkdale, United Kingdom
- Format: Major
- Field: 156 Golfers
- Cut: 36 Hole Cut, Top 70 + Ties
- Purse: $18,000,000
About the Course:
Royal Birkdale is a unique links style of course that stands out amongst other links courses in that it is relatively flat in comparison from the fairway. A lot of other Open Championship venues feature massive undulation across the entire property. At Birkdale, the undulation and trouble comes from in the rough. This alone will lead to accuracy being far more important than distance and bring less than driver into play for a lot of golfers. Just find the fairway along with avoiding the bunkers and let your irons do the work. On approach, the length of the course and shorter than average driving distance metrics leads to a lot of long iron shots into the green. A large majority of shots come from 175 yards and beyond. Around the green isn’t as difficult as most Open venues either with the greens being fairly flat and easier to read. Aim for a certain spot and let the ball work its way to the hole. Once on the greens, like we stated above, you don’t have as tough of a challenge with greens being fairly flat and average in pace. While Birkdale is fairly straightforward, it turns into a test where every single shot matters and missing your spot will lead to large penalties.
Inside the Field:
We have all of the best golfers in the world on display this week for what is the final major of the season. All top 70 golfers in the OWGR will be teeing it up on Thursday to try to claim the Claret Jug. Every champion dating back to 2015 is also here, including Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth. There is a large blend of the best from all of the PGA, DPWT and LIV golf that will have to overcome the pressure that Royal Birkdale offers if they want to become a major champion.
Below is a Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:
Course Fit Model:
Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:
- SG:APR = 20%
- Driving Accuracy % = 15%
- SG:PUTT = 10%
- Birdie or Better % = 10%
- Straight % = 6%
- SG:T2G = 5%
- SG:TOT = 5%
- GIR% = 5%
- Sand Save = 5%
- SG:PUTT Bentgrass = 5%
- Total Driving = 5%
- 175-200 yards = 3%
- 200-225 yards = 3%
- 225-250 yards = 3%
Favorite Golfers:
$10,000+ Range:
- Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,000): He has everything going for him that Birkdale asks for. The accuracy is there, the irons are great, he is playing great and has good history at Open Championships.
Other Notables: Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood
$9,000 Range:
- Jon Rahm ($9,700): While he isn’t exactly in the best of form right now, especially with his irons, the price is what has my attention. He should easily be in the $10,000 range but Draftkings has pushed his price down significantly. He is elite off of the tee and if he can figure things out with his irons then he should be able to take this place apart.
Other Notables: Justin Rose
$8,000 Range:
- Collin Morikawa ($8,700): He is #1 in my course fit model for a reason. Birkdale asks for accuracy off of the tee and elite irons which Morikawa possesses both. Along with his very high GIR%, it will all come down to if he can putt and he has gained well over 2 strokes with his putter in each of the last 4 tournaments. He is my favorite play overall, so obviously he is going to be my favorite in this range regardless of ownership projections.
Other Notables: Viktor Hovland, Tyrell Hatton
$7,000 Range:
- Russell Henley ($7,700): Another golfer that is just too cheap for me. He has finished top 10 at each of the last 2 Open Championships, is playing great golf across the bag right now and is extremely accurate and has good irons. That is exactly what we are asking for from any golfer and to get him at this value is just too good to pass up.
Other Notables: Shane Lowry, Alex Fitzpatrick, Aaron Rai, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed
$6,000 Range:
- Brian Harman ($6,600): Everyone is going to go to golfers at the top half of this range. I am going to slide down to Harman who is built for Open Championships. This is a positional golf course where distance isn’t as important. Harman’s accuracy will go a long way here at Birkdale. His irons have been strong and the putter is always good. If he can just put it all together than I think he can make his way up the leaderboard.
Other Notables: Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, JJ Spaun, Corey Conners, Kurt Kitayama, Ryan Gerard, Jacob Bridgeman, Matt Wallace, Gary Woodland, Ryan Fox, Daniel Berger, Thomas Detry, Jordan Smith, Bud Cauley, Casey Jarvis, Tom McKibbon
$5,000 Range:
- Jackson Suber ($5,700): In this price range you really are just looking for golfers to make the cut. I think Suber with his current form could actually compete. He is 4th in this entire field in GIR%, top 30 in SG:APR and T2G. He is fairly accurate off of the tee and the long irons have been great. He makes it so easy to fit in the elite golfers and actually has upside.
Other Notables: John Parry, Sami Valimaki, Matt McCarty, Laurie Canter, Keita Nakajima
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