PGA Championship Tournament Preview

The PGA Championship - Aronimink Golf Club

• Par 71, 7,267 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 12

• Par 5s: 2

• Greens: Bentgrass

• Green Size: 8,300 sq. ft.

• Water: 0 Holes

• Design: Donald Ross, 1962 with multiple redesigns, most notably in 2017 (Gil Hanse)

• Location: Philadelphia, PA

• Format: Major

• Field: 156 Golfers

• Cut: Top 70 + Ties, 36 Hole Cut

• Purse: $19 Million

About the Course:

Aronimink Golf Club is nuzzled onto a property in Philadelphia, PA that creates a true test, opening the door for a lot of different archetypes to contend at. For starters, there are no water hazards on the property, but make up for it with a ton of deep bunkers and undulation across the entire course. Plenty of long, straight fairways that in the past have catered to heavy distance hitters with less of a penalty for missing these wider than average fairways compared to other comparable courses. On approach you will see shots from almost all approach buckets, but emphasis on long iron play with the back 9 having some very lengthy holes. The Bentgrass green complexes are often surrounded by heavy bunkering, making around the green game certainly a factor, but the larger greens will give golfers some very long range putts. Lag putting and 3-putt avoidance will in turn be a major statistical factor with it being very difficult to stick it close. The greens have a similar style to Augusta with multiple different shelves and “spines” running through the putting surfaces. With very little recent data to go off of compared to other courses we have played on Tour this year, we need to lean into what the course provides us and that is a longer course with wider fairways that will test you on and around the greens. Just based on that, we need to look at Driving Distance, Sand Save %, 3-Putt Avoidance and SG:APP heavily while also letting golfers with elite secondary skill sets to have a better chance at winning this week.

Inside the Field:

The 2nd major of the year brings us a blend of top end talent, rising stars and PGA of America golfers looking to make a name for themselves just like Michael Block did a few years ago. Of the 156 golfers planning to tee it up this week, 98 of them sit inside the OWGR top 100 golfers. Only Shaun Norris and Lucas Herbert did not make it into the field. Winners at Aronimink over the last 20 years include Justin Rose (2010) and Keegan Bradley (2018), but we have every PGA Championship winner since 2007 in the field with the exception of Phil Mickelson who has withdrawn due to a personal matter. The number of PGA of America golfers in the field has shrunk to just 20, down from 25 and upwards of 40 in years past. Expect the cream to rise to the top and contend to win the coveted Wanamaker Trophy at Aronimink this week.

Below is a comprehensive Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:

Course Fit Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• SG:OTT - 5%

• SG:APR - 20%

• SG:ARG - 5%

• SG:T2G - 10%

• SG:PUTT - 10%

• Club Speed - 5%

• Driving Distance - 10%

• Bogey Avoidance - 10%

• Total Driving - 5%

• Sand Saves - 10%

• SG:PUTT Bentgrass - 5%

• Approach Putt Performance - 5%

Favorite Golfers:

$10,000+ Range:

• Bryson DeChambeau ($10,900):Between his price and off the course antics and recent comments, I don’t think anyone at all is going to want to play him this week. That being said, Aronimink asks for a few things that he is elite at. He is extremely long, a good putter and this course has some comparisons to Winged Foot which he dismantled a few years ago. I really like him as a top end pivot that has winning upside. If he wants to “Play the Majors and do Youtube”, the only way to do so is to continue to win majors. I could see this being the type of course for him to excel at and gain those exemptions for other majors.

• Other Notables: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Cam Young

$9,000 Range:

• Patrick Reed ($9,000): While he might not be playing a lot of competitive golf right now, when he does he makes the most of it. He started off the season with two wins and a 2nd on the DPWT then followed that up with a top 15 at the Masters. The approach and putting numbers are just too strong for me to overlook this week even if he is not exactly a long ball hitter.

• Other Notables: Tyrell Hatton

$8,000 Range:

• Chris Gotterup ($8,800): Similar to Reed, he started the season incredibly hot with wins at Phoenix and Sony. He did cool off a bit, but seems to be trending back in the right direction. The distance is never going to be an issue, so OTT I expect him to be a big gainer. He just needs to pick up strokes elsewhere and with him having gained over 4 strokes putting each of the last 2 tournaments and gained on approach in 9 of his last 10, I certainly think he can put himself into contention this week.

• Other Notables: Russell Henley, Jordan Spieth, Robert MacIntyre, Sam Burns, Sepp Straka

$7,000 Range:

• Gary Woodland ($7,300): At this price range, we are just really looking for golfers that check a few boxes. Well, Woodland might check them all. He is incredibly long, solid with his irons and has been a great putter over the last 36 rounds. He finished T17 last week at the Truist while somehow losing almost 3 strokes putting which is typically a weapon for him. I think with how he is playing he will almost assuredly make the cut and can even put himself into contention as well.

• Other Notables: Maverick McNealy, Akshay Bhatia, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Kurt Kitayama, Harris English

$6,000 Range:

• Sudershan Yellamaraju ($6,900): Once again they are out here disrespecting Suder with this price tag. He is playing some incredible golf and has the exact profile we want for Aronimink. He hits it far, good on approach, very solid putter and avoids bogeys. What more could you ask for? All he needs to do is just continue the run of recent form and he will 100% make the cut and could even put himself in a position to top 20 or better this week.

• Other Notables: Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell, Nicolai Hojgaard, David Puig, Kristoffer Reitan, Alex Smalley, Thomas Detry

$5,000 Range:

• Matt Wallace ($5,600): I just think he is a way better golfer than this price leads on and is more of a fit for this course than some others. He has the length and bogey avoidance covered with how strong he is of a lag putter (14th overall in this field over the last 36 rounds). He just needs to not mess it up with his irons and he will be just fine this week. I don’t see him contending, but he has made 5 straight cuts in majors and was T17 last year at the PGA Championship. Give us that again and he very well could be optimal.

• Other Notables: Alex Fitzpatrick, Harry Hall, Nick Taylor, Bud Cauley, Matt McCarty, Jordan L. Smith, Elvis Smylie

I hope you enjoyed this article. To best support us, be sure to join all of our contest offerings, follow us on our socials and give us feedback. Good luck!

X

Instagram

Youtube

Tiers - $50 to 1st

Budget - $50 to 1st

Discord