The Memorial Tournament Preview

The Memorial - Muirfield Village

• Par 70, 7,569 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 10

• Par 5s: 4

• Greens: Bentgrass

• Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.

• Water: 13 Holes

• Design: Jack Nicklaus and Desmond Muirhead, 1974. Redesign in 2021

• Location: Dublin, OH

• Format: Elevated Invitational

• Field: 72 Golfers

• Cut: 36 Hole Cut, Top 50+Ties and within 10 of the leader

• Purse: $20 Million

About the Course:

Jack Nicklaus’ prized design, Muirfield Village, is on display this week for the Memorial. 72 of the best golfers on the planet are in attendance for one of three invitational style golf tournaments on the PGA Tour this season (along with the Genesis and API). This course demands a complete game, with all of distance, accuracy, precision and putting ability all playing major factors in crowning a victor. Off of the tee, 4 of the last 5 years we have seen accuracy be the main factor to success even with the golf course being quite long in nature. This is likely due to the extremely thick rough that Nicklaus himself has said needs to be a defining factor of a course if we want to make it difficult. Golfers that end up in that rough face a very high penalty compared to Tour average, so being as accurate as possible is the most important part to contending. You have approach shots from all different distances, but mostly we see your irons hit from 150-200 yards. The longer hitters might see shorter distances, but with that distance comes a much lower fairway hit %. Just due to the sheer length and smaller greens, we do see the Around the Green game become a major factor to not just contend, but winning at Muirfield. Since 2020, only 19% of golfers inside the top 10 have lost in the SG:ARG category. Of those 19%, only 1 lost more than 2 strokes for the entire tournament which was Niemann back in 2022. You have to have it with your wedges to find yourself in a final group come Sunday. Lastly, putting isn’t all that important this week from a statistical correlation standpoint, but you have to at least lag putt well and being a better Bentgrass putter does help. This place will be a true test and we usually see a big name win. If the elements and Mother Nature can give these golfers a run for their money, it is likely we see a single digit winner. If not, they will still be tested by the course that Jack built in plenty of other ways.

Inside the Field:

This field is headlined by none other than Scottie Scheffer and Rory McIlroy. However, almost everyone of the top 20 in the OWGR is also in attendance with the exception of Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm. The requirements to get into the field were to be in the Top 50 on the 2025 FedEx Cup points list, A current Aon Swing 5 or Next 10 golfer, Top 30 in the OWGR for current PGA Tour members, a 2026 PGA Tour winner, be a current FedEx Cup points list earner and through Sponsors Exemptions. This year's exemptions include Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Patrick Rodgers and Matt Kuchar

Below is a Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:

Course Fit Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• SG:APP - 10%

• SG:ARG - 15%

• SG:T2G - 15%

• Bogey Avoidance - 10%

• Driving Accuracy - 10%

• 100-125 yards - 4%

• 125-150 yards - 4%

• 150-175 yards - 4%

• 175-200 yards - 4%

• Scrambling - 5%

• SG:PUTT Bentgrass - 10%

• SG:Muirfield Village - 5%

• SG:Hard Courses - 10%

Favorite Golfers:

$10,000+ Range:

Cameron Young ($10,300): When factoring in price, he is by far my favorite in this range. I know Scottie has won here twice in a row and his irons are finally starting to shape into form which is scary. However, Cam Young is the perfect fit for this place being 1st in SG:T2G over the last 36 rounds in this field. His around the green game is very solid, he avoids bogeys and has shown the ability to win amongst the best fields.

• Other Notables: Ludvig Aberg, Scottie Scheffler

$9,000 Range:

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100): We need accurate drivers of the golf ball that are strong around the green which is exactly what Tommy provides. He has been a bit iffy with the irons which could be a concern, but he has spike ball striking in him given he has picked up over 4 strokes in the SG:APP category in 4 of the last 11 events. That is all we need and he is a lock for a top 10. I think his ownership will come in lower as well given his recent struggles which is all the more reason to play him.

• Other Notables: Matt Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim, Russell Henley

$8,000 Range:

JJ Spaun ($8,000): He might be my favorite play of the week. He checks all the boxes we need except for the putter which is a bit negated this week. He is very accurate off of the tee, a great iron player and has gained around the green in 4 straight events. As long as he doesn’t completely putt his way out of this like he did at the PGA Championship, he has the current form and game to be in contention this week.

• Other Notables: Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Alex Smalley

$7,000 Range:

Aaron Rai ($7,500): Why is the most recent major champion this low in price? Not to mention he is a sound fit given the accuracy off of the tee is top 5 in this field and has gained across the bag in both of the last 2 events. I don’t care what his ownership is. If we can just have him putt half way decent, I think he can easily pay off this price tag.

• Other Notables: Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Corey Conners

$6,000 Range:

Nick Taylor ($6,800): He is a proven winner that is great around the green. He has been trending lately with a few strong finishes at all of the PGA Championship, Truist and Cadillac which are all strong fields. If he can just find the fairway more often than not, the rest of his game can keep him up there. You don’t even need him to win in this style of tournament and field. He just has to beat the guys around him and he genuinely is a better golfer than a lot of them.

• Other Notables: Eric Cole, Alex Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Bud Cauley, Andrew Novak, Brandt Snedeker

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Tiers - $50 to 1st

Budget - $50 to 1st

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