Travelers Championship Tournament Preview
One of the last elevated events is set to kick off in Cromwell, CT with the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. In this article, we will breakdown the course itself, identify the key metrics to success, create a course fit model and use that data to identify some of the best option on Draftkings for this week's tournament.
Travelers Championship - TPC River Highlands
- Par 70, 6,844 yards
- Par 3s: 4
- Par 4s: 12
- Par 5s: 2
- Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix
- Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
- Water: 5 Holes
- Design: Ross/Kearney, 1928
- Location: Cromwell, CT
- Format: Elevated
- Field: 71 Golfers
- Cut: No Cut
- Purse: $20,000,000
About the Course:
Just west of the Connecticut River lies TPC River Highlands, a shorter, traditional style of golf course that is quite frankly one of the most basic and straightforward tracks we will see on Tour this year. They did a renovation to this course back in 2024 which was hopefully going to make it more difficult to rip driver and wedges on about every hole. However, they clearly didn’t do enough. We still see a higher than average driver usage rate and decently high fairway hit %. That being said, the missed fairway penalty is extremely high which causes Driving Accuracy to have a very high correlation to success. Shorter hitters see about a 1 stroke increase in scoring success and accurate hitters around half a stroke. It is likely this trend continues as it has held even through the renovation over the last 6 years. On approach, we see a lot of wedge play just due to the course being quite short. Anywhere from 100-150 yards is the typical approach range, so we will want to look at short iron specialists for this week. The greens are on the smaller side, so we see a good amount of around the green shots and the data suggests it is a good bit harder to scramble compared to Tour average, but from a predictive measure comparing golfers SG:ARG number coming in to their tournament SG:ARG ranks, it isn’t predictive. In Layman’s terms, good ARG golfers don’t just immediately find it easier to play ARG at TPC River Highlands compared to other courses. You also have a higher GIR% even with smaller greens, so I am not going to put much weight towards ARG. Lastly, the greens are a Bentgrass/Poa blend that hold about as average of a predictive putting metric as it gets. From the different putting ranges, there isn’t a single distance that holds a +/- of over 1% either way than Tour average. Any course where the winning score is usually above -15, you will need to sink some putts. The greens aren’t that tricky, so I think even poor putters could have a spike putting week. Therefore, we aren’t going to put as much weight into putting either. The main focus this week will be heavy driving accuracy and wedge play. We will still sprinkle in some other secondary metrics as well, but that will be the recipe for success this week at TPC River Highlands.
Inside the Field:
71 of the top golfers on Tour are set to tee it up this week for the Travelers Championship. 8 of the top 10 golfers in the OWGR are in the field, excluding Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. Notables include Scottie Scheffler, last week’s US Open champion Wyndham Clark and two time and defending champion of the Travelers Keegan Bradley. Our sponsors exemptions include Keith Mitchell, fresh off of a top 5 at the US Open, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth and up-and-comer Ben James. The AON Swing 5 making their way into the field includes Eric Cole, Brandt Snedeker, Jackson Suber, Mac Meissner and Mark Hubbard. With no-cut, these golfers will get 72 holes to showcase who has the game to take home the win at TPC River Highlands.
Below is a Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:
Course Fit Model:
Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:
- SG:APR = 20%
- SG:T2G = 15%
- SG:TOT = 10%
- Driving Accuracy % = 10%
- SG:PUTT = 5%
- Birdie or Better % = 5%
- SG: PUTT Bentgrass = 5%
- 100-125 yards = 5%
- 125-150 yards = 5%
- SG:TPC River Highlands = 5%
- SG:Medium = 5%
- Total Driving = 5%
- SG: Short Courses = 5%
Favorite Golfers:
$10,000+ Range:
- Scottie Scheffler ($13,800): Elevated events with no cut make Scottie almost a lock for me. Then you factor in he is the 2024 Travelers champion with conditions this week expected to be similar to that year and I am all in. He is the best player in the world and there is enough value to make him fit. This is one of those “don’t overthink it” plays where I think you play him and hope the other 5 golfers in your lineup can hold up their end of the bargain.
Other Notables: Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele
$9,000 Range:
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,800): There are certainly some names in this price range that make it hard to pick someone. I just really like what I am seeing from Aberg’s game and his fit for this course is ideal. We are modeling for 13 different metrics this week. He isn’t worse than 34th in any of them and is top 20 in 8 out of 13. The approach game is great, he is 4th in Total Driving and is very strong at picking up birdies. It really will come down to his putter which he has gained with in 3 straight events. His ownership isn’t likely to be too high, making him a nice contrarian option with winning upside.
Other Notables: Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley
$8,000 Range:
- Si Woo Kim ($8,800): I can excuse his MC at the US Open last week. He was on the wrong side of the weather wave and at least followed it up on Friday in good conditions with a really strong round. We want elite irons players who are accurate off of the tee and make a lot of birdies. Si Woo checks all 3 boxes. The putter coming around recently is the icing on the cake for me. If he can just have that spike putting performance that we have seen then he might be able to finally capture the win that has been evading him this season.
Other Notables: Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Keegan Bradley, Aaron Rai
$7,000 Range:
- JJ Spaun ($7,900): If we are excusing the MC for Si Woo, we have to for Spaun. He also had the bad weather wave and rallied nicely on Friday, but it just wasn’t enough. I have the exact same analysis for Spaun as I did Si Woo. He checks all 3 of the approach, accuracy and birdie making ability boxes we are looking for. I just don’t think his putter has been all that good having only gained twice in his last 8 events. If he can overcome that then the sky is the limit. He was a zero putting here last year on his way to a T14 finish. I would gladly take that result again here at a cheaper price tag.
Other Notables: Justin Rose, Alex Fitzpatrick, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Kristoffer Reitain, Jacob Bridgeman, Bud Cauley
$6,000 Range:
- Alex Noren ($6,900): He isn’t going to model well at all given his pool approach numbers in his last two events. However, you look last 30 rounds for Noren and his irons are actually very strong, the OTT numbers are starting to turn the corner and he is almost always going to be a great putter. He is incredibly accurate with the driver which should give him good looks with his short irons. It has just been the last few weeks long iron play has been needed and that has been the weakness. Give him a short course where accuracy and spike putting is needed and I think Noren can do all of that.
Other Notables: Sepp Straka, Corey Conners, Daniel Berger, Jackson Suber
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