Truist Championship Tournament Preview

The Truist Championship - Quail Hollow Club

• Par 71, 7,569 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 11

• Par 5s: 3

• Greens: Bermudagrass

• Green Size: 6,600 sq. ft.

• Water: 7 Holes

• Design: George Cobb, 1961 with multiple Tom Fazio redesigns, most notably in 2017

• Location: Charlotte, NC

• Format: Elevated

• Field: 72 Golfers

• Cut: No Cut

• Purse: $20 Million

About the Course:

Quail Hollow in Charlotte is notorious for the Green Mile, the final 3 holes that basically can make or break the tournament. It was the host to the PGA Championship this past year where Scottie won, but he is not in the field this week. It will likely play a whole lot easier this week without the major championship course conditions, and I think for once the weather might actually play a factor. Quail Hollow, home to so many different tournaments and names over the years. It is now the Truist, but used to be the Wells Fargo, we play the PGA Championship here every couple of years, the Presidents Cup back in 2022. Let’s break this place down. Quail Hollow sets up very similar to what we just saw at Doral in the sense you need to be a long ball hitter to bite off enough of this course with its extreme length. However, having a blend of accuracy and distance is the preferred method to success, so we will once again be looking at Total Driving. The numbers say that you need to be excellent with your irons, specifically from long range (175-225, 250+) just due to the sheer length that this course entails. Over 50% of shots historically have come from those distance markers which is well above Tour average. Bring your best ball striking and you can find your way to the top. SG: Around the Green has a very high signal this week, giving Quail Hollow the 7th highest ARG metric reading of all qualifying courses on Tour. There are a lot of greenside bunkers that give golfers struggles and you will find yourself playing out of them at a higher rate than most weeks. Another week, another course with Bermudagrass greens. Putting also has a strong correlation to success, with each of the last 6 winners at Quail (non-majors) having gained over 5 strokes putting on their way to hoisting the trophy. You can still succeed with an average putting week, but you need to spike to have a shot at contending. Some other miscellaneous stats with strong correlation this week are Club Speed/Ball Speed. With this course being well over 7,600 yards, you need distance to take apart this course. Club/Ball speed directly correlates to distance so this one makes a lot of sense. Par 5 Scoring when there are only 5 holes that have historically played under par at Quail. Of those 5, the 3 Par 5s are on the list as well as the very short Par 4s (#8 and #14). Take advantage of the easy scoring holes when you can. And lastly, Course History. There are a number of golfers that always excel here and vice versa for others that struggle. It is a stickier course than most.

Inside the Field:

Quail Hollow is back as the host of the Truist after hosting the PGA Championship last season. A course that tests all facets of your game and finishes out with the Green Mile, a 3 hole stretch from 16-18 that plays traditionally very difficult making holding a lead troublesome. We have 21 of the top 25 golfers in the OWGR teeing it up this week, headlined by Rory McIlroy and Cam Young. Some past winners at Quail Hollow in the field include: Sepp Straka, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Jason Day, Brian Harman, Rickie Fowler and Lucas Glover.

Below is a comprehensive Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:

Course Fit Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• SG: APR - 15%

• SG: ARG - 5%

• SG: T2G - 10%

• SG: Putt - 8%

• Club Speed - 4%

• Ball Speed - 4%

• Driving Distance - 11%

• Total Driving - 5%

• 175-200 yards - 4%

• 200-225 yards - 4%

• Sand Saves - 7%

• SG: Putt Bermuda - 5%

• SG: Par 5s - 8%

• SG: Quail Hollow - 10%

Favorite Golfers:

$10,000 Range:

• Rory McIlroy ($11,700): It is fairly disrespectful to me that Scottie every week is almost $14,000, but when he isn’t in the field they don’t respect Rory the same way. He is arguably playing even better than him right now and this is literally the best course comp and history any player on Tour has ever had. Rory loves Quail Hollow and his game is a perfect fit. With all of the value this week, I think playing Rory shouldn’t be hard and in my opinion I think he is a large value. All this being said, I also love Xander Schauffele ($10,000) and Cameron Young ($10,100) at their price tags as well and both are in excellent form.

$9,000 Range:

• Ludvig Aberg ($9,600): His blend of distance and accuracy makes him perfect for Quail Hollow. He is going to be able to bomb it out there and left his irons do the talking which have been much better as of late. He is good with the long irons which is important and is top 25 in this field in SG:Bermudagrass Putting. Put all of those things together and you have the perfect golfer to go out and win the Truist this week.

• Sam Burns ($9,100): This course is about distance, ball striking and spike putting. He checks the distance and putting metrics 100% as he is 13th in Driving Distance and 1st in SG:PUTT over the last 36 rounds. If he can just bring it with the irons which, like Aberg, are also turning the corner, he could find his way to the top of the leaderboard.

$8,000 Range:

• Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800): Deki might not have the distance we are looking for, but when pairing approach and around the green numbers, he might be #1 in this field. You need to be a great ballstriker here and Matsuyama is exactly that. He has gained in 5 of his last 6 trips to Quail off of the tee and gained on the putting surfaces in his last trip. Take his current form and check both of those boxes and you could see Matsuyama in the mix come Sunday.

• Chris Gotterup ($8,600): Gotterup really disappointed last week, but it was due to losing over 6 strokes on approach. He is typically a great approach player so I can excuse that. He has the distance 100% and is usually great with the long irons. He is 12th in this field in SG:Bermudagrass putting which finishes off checking the 3 main boxes we are looking for. He has winning upside and I think his game will translate well here even though he has never played at Quail Hollow.

• Sepp Straka ($8,100): Similar to Deki, he doesn’t have the distance exactly, but is long enough. He will make up for it with great long iron play. As long as he doesn’t completely fall apart around the greens, he is a good putter and should be able to shine this week.

$7,000 Range:

• JJ Spaun ($7,900): He is quietly turning back into the golfer that won the US Open in 2025 after a bit of a dry spell. He is great ballstriking, long enough off of the tee and has decent history here. All we need is the spike putting performance, which he has gained in all 4 trips to Quail in SG:PUTT. Given all of those factors, sign me up for some Spaun this week.

• Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,800): He might have disappointed last week, but the numbers say go right back to him. He hits it extremely far, is great with his irons and is a decent putter. The cherry on top is he has some decent history at Quail with a T41 at the 2025 PGA Championship where gained massively on approach and putting. Pair that with his typically great driver and you have all the tools for success this week.

• Justin Thomas ($7,600): He checks the Course History box for sure with a win here back in 2017. He hits it far which is great, has strong around the green metrics which is strongly correlated with success this week and has never lost on approach at the Truist in his career. All he needs is a spike putting week and he could be a great option.

$6,000 Range:

• Daniel Berger ($6,900): He might be awful around the green and sometimes with the putter, but he can hit it far enough and is an excellent ball striker. That is really all I am asking for at this price point. Just be a zero in those other two categories and in a 72 man field you could find yourself in contention with the ball striking alone.

• Sudershan Yellamaraju ($6,700): The disrespect in pricing is real with Sudershan. He has been playing amazing golf this year and has been great on approach and is currently 1st in Total Driving over the last 36 rounds for this entire field. Pair that with top 12 Ball and Club Speed metrics and you are looking at a great fit for Quail Hollow.

• Ryan Fox ($6,600): He has the distance, Par 5 scoring and approach numbers to back up his ability to play well here. He is also 15th in Course History which is great to see. It will all come down to can he putt and his top 25 ranking in SG:Bermudagrass putting has me thinking he can.

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